CruelCow
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Move along. Nobody suspicious is here.
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« Reply #330 on: February 01, 2011, 04:59:51 PM » |
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Actually implementing it just now has showed me an (IMHO) simpler explanation:
1. With the switching strategy you win exactly then when your first guess is wrong and lose when your first guess is right. (If we guess right, the other door is bad and we take it. If we guess wrong, the other door is good and we take it.)
2. The chance that your first guess is wrong is 66%
3. Combining 1. and 2., our win chance is 66%
Which also explains nicely why more doors actually increase your chances which also seems counter-intuitive.
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« Last Edit: February 01, 2011, 05:38:32 PM by CruelCow »
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Rct33
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« Reply #331 on: February 01, 2011, 05:57:50 PM » |
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Found a question which is the same principle right out of my stats book: A contestant on a quiz show is asked to choose one of three doors. Behind one of the doors is the star prize of a sports car, but behind each of the other two doors there is a toy car. The contestant chooses one of the three doors. The host then opens one of the remaining two doors and reveals a toy car. The host then asks the contestant if they want to stick with their first choice or switch to the other unopened door. State what you would recommend the contestant to do in order to have the greatest probability of winning the sports car. Show your working clearly. Best way to do this, tree diagram:  |
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Captain Valentine
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« Reply #332 on: February 01, 2011, 06:32:37 PM » |
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Yeah I understand how it works now. Thought it through more.
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Magathery
WDG Lube Liason and Slippery Genius
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AKA - Ripsaw
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« Reply #333 on: February 02, 2011, 08:41:16 AM » |
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I must admit, I did pause for a moment on where to post this. So on the grounds of that I found it interesting, I think it will go nicly on the shelf in here. So, CRIME! OK, a little dramatic maybe. Let's try another approch. Want to know how busy the police have been? Well now you can with this helpfull government endorsed web site. Simply click the link below, enter an area that interests you, and KUNG-POW! Find out what kind of miscrents and devents have been aprehended... http://www.police.uk/ |
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 May the Fluke be with you... |
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Hzza
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« Reply #334 on: February 02, 2011, 09:15:23 AM » |
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My house is in the middle of a massive crime bubble, but that isn't too suprising as I live practically on the high street. Interestingly though, the first news story I saw on there is one that says a guy I went to school with has gone to prison for GBH  . |
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Dodgy
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« Reply #335 on: February 02, 2011, 09:46:49 AM » |
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omg your minis are so aids!
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Lister
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Calm down baby, have a piece of cheese.
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« Reply #336 on: February 02, 2011, 01:01:07 PM » |
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I'm scared.. that shows me there are 901 crimes committed near where I live at the moment.
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Zarf
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The Paragon of Animals
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« Reply #337 on: February 02, 2011, 01:36:43 PM » |
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Zero crimes near me  |
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Power
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I like... babies?
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« Reply #338 on: February 02, 2011, 01:41:44 PM » |
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Well someone has been a secret vigilante at nights?
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Tommy the Cat
WDG "favourite bitch" Rodger award 2011 runner up
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« Reply #339 on: February 02, 2011, 05:23:08 PM » |
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I'm scared.. that shows me there are 901 crimes committed near where I live at the moment.
122! FUCK YEAH MIDDLE CLASS 628 where Hzza lives. This makes me lol. |
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And tommy you have above average intelligence ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ஜ۩۞۩ஜ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ ＳＨＵＴ ＵＰ ＡＮＤ ＥＮＪＯＹ ＴＨＥ CＡＴ！ ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ஜ۩۞۩ஜ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ |
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Captain Valentine
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« Reply #340 on: February 02, 2011, 06:35:07 PM » |
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1004! What do I win? Apparently 3 crimes have happened on my street since I moved in. I only saw one of them (some guy got pulled over for drink driving and they found loads of drugs in his car).
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« Last Edit: February 02, 2011, 06:37:14 PM by Captain Valentine »
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Power
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I like... babies?
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« Reply #341 on: February 02, 2011, 06:36:47 PM » |
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Probably a free stabbing or something
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LtMama
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Meow?
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« Reply #342 on: February 02, 2011, 07:36:33 PM » |
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1367, LIKE A BOSS
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Power
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I like... babies?
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« Reply #343 on: February 02, 2011, 07:40:58 PM » |
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I might have to reconsider our trip to UK. Well at least you get a nice picture on CCTV. |
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Zarf
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The Paragon of Animals
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« Reply #344 on: February 02, 2011, 07:42:39 PM » |
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1367, LIKE A BOSS
Brighton isn't it? How many of them were for public indecency? And how many of those were you? |
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