discordance
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« Reply #375 on: July 07, 2010, 04:31:43 PM » |
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yes they are currently dropping but we are starting most active cycle of steam users. More competition right now, to maximise your odds you really do need to try tomorrow morning. Your best shot is actually 11pm (10-12) valve time, which is 7am (6-8) here see here http://store.steampowered.com/stats/The 45 min window coupled with the 7am crafting time is what got drunken fool his golden wrench + luck. |
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« Last Edit: July 07, 2010, 04:36:17 PM by discordance »
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CruelCow
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« Reply #376 on: July 07, 2010, 04:41:23 PM » |
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Hzza
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« Reply #377 on: July 07, 2010, 04:45:40 PM » |
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Yeah, srsly mang, let it go...
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egg
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« Reply #378 on: July 07, 2010, 04:49:19 PM » |
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lol cc maths interests some folks  @disco DF used more than that though. Checking the forum posts on sourceop.com theres one guy who predicted a drop, which was the 3rd one in line (not the next) and DF agreed with his time. The wrench was obtained within 10 seconds of that predicted time..... |
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discordance
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« Reply #379 on: July 07, 2010, 05:00:06 PM » |
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cruel i defend against you with  mmm xkcd graphs go fetch me some more boy hzza this is a distraction from my real work and graph practice, no need to get all excited, and if we must play this silly game might as well maximise chances. I'm not surprised he has a more accurate prediction tbh hes probably identified the underlying algorithms. Mines only gone as far as probabilistic prediction. My best guess puts you within 20% of the actual time within a 10 minute period and you still have competition from a few thousand tf2 players and probably a few hundred crafting around that time. DF was suspiciously bang on with his time and he'd still have beaten off a few people also crafting at the right time. I think hes had it sussed since yesterday evening though and him and his friends have all been playing the system since. |
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discordance
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« Reply #380 on: July 07, 2010, 05:07:13 PM » |
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ok heres a better explanation http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1346836apparently they are 50% confident a drop will occur between 55 and 65 mins after the last drop, i'm not so sure about this but my stats foo is crap atm (need practice!). If it really is a 50% confidence then couple that with 6am-8am crafting and your chances are way up still not sure if this is everything out of drunken fool though. |
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claws
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« Reply #381 on: July 07, 2010, 05:07:32 PM » |
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Go for it disco, makes a nice change from the derailing  |
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egg
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« Reply #382 on: July 07, 2010, 05:10:18 PM » |
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Get to it then we need algorithm  |
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egg
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« Reply #383 on: July 07, 2010, 05:13:08 PM » |
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Still no wrench, incidentally haven't valve all just arrived at work?
I reckon they got to work, saw that the system has been 'worked out' and put it all on hold.....
engi update next week now? lol
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discordance
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« Reply #384 on: July 07, 2010, 05:16:21 PM » |
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http://www.sourceop.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=3343gah so sourceop had the formula worked out on monday. I could have coded a more random formula that this. Boo valve boo. a decaying logarithmic distribution would have produced similar times but actually random. They had it down to the exact minute apparently?
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egg
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« Reply #385 on: July 07, 2010, 05:34:19 PM » |
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Yep thats the thread I read earlier..... So get to it.... Give us algorithm.
BTW thats just cuz im interested in the formula Valve used not cuz Im actually after one!
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egg
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« Reply #386 on: July 07, 2010, 05:59:34 PM » |
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Teatime
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« Reply #387 on: July 07, 2010, 06:52:18 PM » |
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Yep, Wrangler looks a bit OP. We will see.
Only slightly related: Am I right that while you can receive item drops in offline practice you won't get achievements?
If so may I politely request (again) if somebody was willing to set up (or make available) a server for some achievement farming for a couple of days?
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DeadlyAvenger
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« Reply #388 on: July 07, 2010, 06:58:28 PM » |
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Yep, Wrangler looks a bit OP. We will see.
Only slightly related: Am I right that while you can receive item drops in offline practice you won't get achievements?
If so may I politely request (again) if somebody was willing to set up (or make available) a server for some achievement farming for a couple of days?
I'm sure you can sit in Server #2 if you want (when it's not being used). Just send someone a message for the password. |
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Millicent Bystander
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« Reply #389 on: July 07, 2010, 07:32:54 PM » |
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load that kitty Armageddon map  |
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I find myself stark naked except for a pair of latex gloves attempting to pull on a pair of red tights on in my parent's spare bedroom.
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